ARIMA MODELING FOR HIGH-FREQUENCY CHANNEL RESPONSE IN EQUATORIAL REGION

Abstract

Indonesia is an area traversed by the equator. The shape of Indonesian territory is an archipelago. Indonesia is a region prone to natural disasters. With the development of technology, it is possible that the islands can be connected. One of the communication technologies that can be developed is broadcasting technology. With the development of this technology, it is possible to increase the allocation of new frequency channels. One of the channels that can accommodate this is the High Frequency (HF) radio channel. Researchers are currently developing a lot of models of HF channel radio communication systems in various forms of models. In general, modeling is done in the form of statistics, designed and implemented using channel simulators. One type of model that can be implemented is the ARIMA model, this is because using the ARIMA Model has the most suitable properties with the characteristics of the data obtained from the HF channel attenuation data collection results. With ARIMA modeling, it is necessary to consider non-stationary characteristics of time. The modeling results are ARIMA models (0,1,1), (0,0,5), (1,0,0), (1,0,1), (1,0,2), and (0,0,4). And two models approaching are the ARIMA (1,0,0), and the ARIMA (1,0,2). One of the best ARIMA models was selected based on the smallest AIC criterion. The best ARIMA model is the ARIMA (1,0,2) model.